Five big questions shaping video games in 2025, 09/01/2025

And no, I don't know when GTA VI is out 😤

Jan 09, 2025

VGIM considers five big questions set to shape the industry year
Tencent denies it supplies the Chinese military after US government blacklisting
Slay the Spire 2 tops the list of games I want to play in 2025

Hello VGIM-ers,

Welcome to the first newsletter of 2025. I can’t wish you a Happy New Year because Larry David will be angry with me, but I can say that it is nice to be back in your inboxes again.

Before we dive into the first Big Read of our latest lap around the Sun, there are a few things I’d like to quickly draw your attention to.

First up, I popped up in a couple of media outlets over the past couple of weeks to prattle on with my usual “video games meets politics” spiel.

I talked to BBC News about what’s happening in the games industry in 2025, including the Esports Olympics (which I discuss in more detail below).

I also chatted with The Times about the censoring of terms like “free Taiwan” and “Winnie the Pooh” in the in-game chat function of NetEase’s Marvel Rivals because - I cannot stress this enough - I don’t get out of the house much. Have a read of them both, if you fancy it.

Next, I am looking to book interviews with bigwigs who know lots about the evolution of video game hardware, the use of game engines in civil society and competition policy for my forthcoming non-fiction book Power Play.

If you are an expert in these fields - or know someone who is - get in touch with me via the email linked at the top of this newsletter so we can set up a video call (or an in person meeting at GDC).

Finally, I’ve set up the first Video Games Industry Memo reader starter pack over on BlueSky.

If you’d like to give some fellow readers a follow, you can grab the pack here. And if you’d like to join the gang, make sure to like this post so I can add you to the group.

Right, those are the notices all done. Let’s get on with the newsletter.

The big read - Five big questions shaping video games in 2025

“In the video game industry, 2025 is expected to see the release of many new video games” - Wikipedia

I’ve got some good news, everybody. Wikipedia says that video games are BACK.

Yes, after 2024 reduced most of us to jibbering wrecks - mostly due to the relentlessly grim waves of redundancies and layoffs, but partly due to going a little too deep into Balatro - 2025 is wafting the sweet scent of hope towards our faces.

The likely launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI), the release of the successor to the Nintendo Switch and a deep slate of releases containing the likes of Borderlands 4, Civilisation VII and a new Mafia game suggests this year will be less grim than the last one was (how about that for some New Year positivity, eh?)

But despite the likelihood of an industry uptick this year, there are nevertheless some big questions facing the sector this year that demand a response.

So rather than chuck you a load of predictions for 2025, I’m instead giving you my best answer to five of the biggest posers facing the video games sector in the next 12 months.

Question 1: When will Grand Theft Auto VI launch?

The launch of Grand Theft Auto VI will be a major moment for the global video games industry and likely one of the biggest releases in the history of the sector.

Boffins at DFC Intelligence forecast that the game will generate $3.2bn in its first year on sale, estimating that the game will rack up over a $1bn of pre-orders before anyone has even had the chance to play it.

This, in turn, will mean it will have an enormous impact on the sector.

As well as having worldwide cultural cut-through, breaking out beyond the industry’s borders and firmly into the mainstream, GTA VI will also cause plenty of tactical headaches for the rest of the sector who will have to play silly buggers with the release dates of their games to avoid annihilation.

But somewhat awkwardly, we still don’t know exactly when this commercial leviathan will begin stomping all over the industry discourse.

As it stands, the safe money - and my answer to the question up top - is that the game will launch in October or November this year. And I think this for a few main reasons.

First, and least convincingly, Rockstar pegged 2025 as its release year when it unveiled the first trailer for the game at the tail end of 2023.

Second, and a touch more convincingly, Take-Two Interactive, Rockstar’s parent company, has earmarked the game for a Fall 2025 release in its company financials for a number of quarters in the row.

Third, and most convincingly of all for someone who has seen the paranoia of games industry communication professionals first hand, the fact that Strauss Zelnick, Take-Two’s head honcho, has been allowed out to talk about the “absolutely phenomenal” game in the Financial Times suggests the company is confident that the crime caper will hit its intended release window.

But with Bloomberg’s Jason Schreier tipping the game to slip into next year and Kotaku reporting last year that Rockstar bigwigs were worried about missing their 2025 release window, don’t be entirely surprised if the biggest game of this year becomes the biggest one of next year instead.

Question 2: How will the successor to the Nintendo Switch perform?

The other major release mystery of 2025 is when exactly we’ll be able to get our hands on the successor to Nintendo’s wildly popular Switch device.

Nintendo confirmed that it will reveal its new console before the end of its financial year in March 2025. But it has kept schtum on the release date, forcing us to twiddle our thumbs and wait expectantly for more news (or check out all the leaks about it on the internet, obviously).

However, the thinness of the company’s software line-up last year, waning sales of the original Switch and Nintendo’s track record of launching devices fairly quickly after unveiling them to the public suggests the Switch 2 could be with us relatively soon - giving us all time to pick one up this year.

How well is it set to sell though? The busy boffins at DFC Intelligence have forecast that it’ll comfortably ‘win’ the next console generation, knocking one of Sony or Microsoft (probably the latter) into a distant third - despite their plans for their own handheld device.

There’s good reason to be healthily sceptical of such a prediction, not least due to the often hilariously chaotic and unpredictable nature of the industry.

However, there are reasons to be as optimistic as DFC is over the likely fortunes of Nintendo’s next generation device.

It’s been nearly eight years since the launch of the Switch, which will provide people like me with reason enough to purchase.

The line-up of games will likely be strong, with Nintendo clearly prioritising a strong line up for it over the past 12 months.

And the news that the device will be backwards compatible with the previous Switch’s library of games should smooth the upgrade pathway (especially for Nintendo’s family focused audience).

However, the market has shifted considerably since the launch of the original Switch in 2017 in ways that could reasonably slow uptake of a brand new device.

The emergence of handheld games devices such as the Steam Deck and PlayStation Portal have encroached on the Switch’s previously unique “is it a handheld, is it a home gaming device” pitch.

The blurring of the boundaries between platforms via games like Fortnite and services such as Game Pass has also weakened the Switch’s “play in any context” pitch by increasingly making platforms more important than devices.

Even the value of first party exclusives, with both Sony and Microsoft suggesting that a console install base may not be enough by itself to keep people playing (and, even more importantly paying).

And with the gap between console generations smaller than ever, there’s a risk that Nintendo could find consumers hesitant to upgrade their console to a device described by a number of insiders as an “evolution rather than a revolution” - especially when conditions remain tough for many consumers.

So I do think the Switch 2 will perform well and will find a place in the market. But I would also expect its success to be a slower burn for Nintendo as consumers prove to be in less rush to switch up (ha!) their devices.

Question 3: Will video games businesses find themselves in regulatory hot water this year?

Almost certainly yes.

If 2024 was the year where much of the world went to the polls - including in the UK, the US and the European Union - 2025 is the year in which previously implemented rules and new regulatory issues will likely find their way to the industry’s door.

There are three issues in particular that are likely to lead to greater regulatory scrutiny of video games businesses.

First, ongoing fights within the digital competition space are likely to intensify over the course of the coming year.

2024 had already seen numerous battles on the digital competition front. This included the European Commission using its new powers under the Digital Markets Act to crack open the mobile gaming stores, Google attempting to avoid the fallout of a landmark defeat to Epic Games in the US courts and a range of “class action” lawsuits in the UK aimed at storefronts such as Steam and PlayStation that’ll likely play out in the year to come.

But with more digital competition rules coming into force across the world this year - such as the UK’s Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Act, which was fully implemented at the end of December 2024 - expect to see more competition showdowns in the games biz during 2025.

Second, it is pretty likely that video games will be dragged into fights over online safety as regulators prepare to wield their recently granted powers.

With the UK’s Online Safety Act finally coming into meaningful force this year, the EU starting to use its enforcement powers under the Digital Services Act and Australia, frankly, going bonkers by trying to ban social media use for under 16s, games businesses with user-to-user communications functions should reasonably expect regulatory scrutiny this year (provided regulators aren’t too distracted by the prospect of initiating a full blown scrap with Meta and X, that is).

Finally, there will likely be a considerable bunfight over the regulation of artificial intelligence that will find its way to the industry door via copyright and intellectual property concerns.

Until relatively recently, policy makers were mostly focused on regulating AI in regards to safety concerns (e.g. the EU’s AI Act attempting to mitigate the risk that AI might accidentally drop a plane out of the sky) - something that kept the industry out of the conversational and regulatory crosshairs.

But with a recently announced UK Government consultation on AI and copyright rules sparking controversy with its suggestion that rights holders would need to “opt out” of having their work scraped by AI firms, the battle around the regulation of AI is arriving at the industry’s door - making 2025 a potentially rather fighty one (note: that is a technical term) for the sector.

Question 4: Will the Esports Olympics wrap the video games industry up in accusations of “sportswashing”?

Was the esports industry’s wish that video games would be considered an Olympic sport made on a cursed monkey paw? We are likely to find out in 2025.

Details are thin about the first Esports Olympic Games, which are slated to take place in the summer of 2025 with the official seal of approval of the International Olympic Committee (IOC).

In theory, the commencement of the Esports Olympics should offer the sector some much needed credibility upon which to build on (as well as defences against accusations from some in the movement that video games are linked to ill-health and “a sedentary lifestyle”).

The problem - and the reason for the reference to curled fingers on a cursed simian appendage - is that the existence of the virtual Olympics is inextricably tied to the aims and ambitions of Saudi Arabia.

The first Esports Olympics will be hosted in Riyadh as part of a 12 year agreement between the IOC and the country’s national olympic committee which, as outlined in these pages last year, seems to be the result of a marriage of financial and modernisation convenience between both organisations.

However, such a delightful union does not necessarily mean it will lead to many happy returns for the video games and esports sectors.

In his book States of Play, Miguel Delaney argues that Saudi Arabian investment in football, golf and tennis has come as part of a deliberate push by the Saudi state to inextricably intertwine its cash with the culture and infrastructure of those sports.

By doing so, it generates leverage over all of them; enabling the Saudi state to use them as a shorthand for economic and cultural liberalisation that enables it to ‘wash’ its reputation - and reality - as an authoritarian state.

It is hard to see how the first virtual Olympics can escape similar accusations when it takes place later this year.

And when it does, the games industry at large will likely have to think carefully about how it tells its story in response to this.

Question 5: What comes next for the games industry press?

Finally, and speaking of telling its story, 2025 is going to be an interesting year for the industry’s specialist trade and consumer press.

Last year was mostly a disaster for specialist news coverage of the video games sector.

Consumer outlets such as Game Informer shut down completely. Cost cutting exercises at the parent companies of Games Industry Biz and MCV/Develop damaged the industry press significantly. And the only major investment into games editorial mostly came in the form of comparatively vested commercial interests such as American shopping giant Walmart, Microsoft and, erm, companies with direct links to Saudi money. Eeep.

There’s a real risk that independent specialist press coverage of games is weakening to a point of no return: damaging the industry’s ability to share its story in the round with both itself and the wider world.

However, I have a hunch that this year will mark the start of a “new” trade press that will fill the gap being left within the market for a couple of reasons.

First, the industry is quickly remembering that it needs specialist media to provide enough space to tell its story.

While coverage of games in places like Bloomberg, The FT and BBC has improved, they simply can’t - and often don’t want to - cover the breadth of stories emerging from the sector.

Funding specialist press allows for that breadth of coverage to exist, giving the industry beyond the biggest names a chance to get their stories out there - something businesses are quietly remembering.

Second, there are signs that games media outlets are reforming to ensure that both their content and business models adapt to the realities of the modern media landscape.

While the value of specialist press has definitely been underappreciated in some corners, the games media had also struggled to evolve to meet changing audience needs and a challenging commercial environment for news media generally.

However, individuals and outlets across the industry have shown that there is room to find a different path forward that leans into the communities who do value industry reporting.

Pocket Gamer Biz has emerged as one of the last major media brands standing because it understood that convening its communities through its conferences gave companies a reason to buy into it.

Consumer outlet Video Games Chronicle has reduced its dependence on uncertain advertising revenue by growing its community through channels that widen out beyond its site (e.g. its podcast on the Stak network) and monetising them through Patreon.

And individuals such as Stephen Totilo and Neil Long have shown that people and businesses will subsidise the creation of news when it is high quality, delivered to them where they need it in and released in digestible form.

The games media enters 2025 in poor shape. But if the industry does recognise the value of trade reporting, and the games media does evolve further, it could end the year in much better nick than it started.

The bluffer’s guide to 2025 in games

Do say: 2025 will be an important year for the video games sector, with major game launches and the release of a new console likely to give us a strong sense of what the next half decade of the industry could look like.

Don’t say: Hands up who is ready to thrive in 2025?!

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News in brief

War games?: The US Department of Defense has named Tencent on a blacklist of companies that it accuses of working with the Chinese military. While being added to the list does not attract specific sanctions, it does discourage American businesses from working with companies in a way that I will describe - very professionally - as “not ideal”. Tencent, unsurprisingly, denies the allegations.

Who wishes to fight must first count the (virtual) cost: Activision Blizzard spent over $700m making Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War across its lifespan, according to an excellent scoop in Game File. Stephen Totilo discovered the eye-watering amount while sifting through a court submission from the company in regards to an ongoing case regarding a 2022 school shooting in Uvalde in Texas.

Chip phwoars: Nvidia unveiled its latest high end video games PC chips at CES this week. Jensen Huang, CEO of the immensely valuable chip creator, announced that the new chips will use the company’s Blackwell AI technology to create “movie-quality images”. Prices will range from $549 to $1999 depending on how powerful (and, let’s be honest, expensive) you like your hardware.

Billion dollar hedgehog: The Sonic the Hedgehog franchise has taken over $1bn at the global box office, according to a report in Eurogamer. The series crossed the mark following the successful release of Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which grossed over $200m worldwide in its first week in cinemas in the run up to Christmas. Gotta go spend that cash fast, SEGA.

Play time is over?: Finally, I wanted to give a quick nod to Ryan Rigney’s thoughtful essay about how much time each of us actually have to consume creative content. What starts out as a meditation on reading becomes a useful reflection on both the state of the industry - i.e. what happens when/if players realise their time is more valuable than their money - and on how we generally choose to spend our lives.

Moving on

Tributes have been paid to Martyn Brown, who co-founded Team 17, after he died aged 57. Read Game Republic’s tribute to Martyn here…nDreams have certainly come true for Tom Davidson, who has been promoted to Senior Communications Manager at the company…Ash Ligouri is now Community and Social Lead at We Are Reach…In newsletter news, Jamin Smith has stepped down as Marketing Director at Modern Wolf to continue building indie game curios newsletter Pantaloon…Matt Styles, meanwhile, is now Head of Business Development over at GameDiscoverCo…And congratulations to Carl Cavers, who was named an OBE in the New Year’s Honours list for his services to the video games industry in the UK…

Jobs ahoy

IGN is hiring for an Editorial Director, Games Industry Biz in the UK and a Director, Games Industry Biz in LA...Show Epic Games that your campaigns can perform under pressure as a Senior Marketing Performance Manager…The National Videogame Museum in Sheffield is seeking a new Chair and new Trustees for its board…And Tencent is staffing up its comms team in Shenzhen with a Global Communications Manager. Perfect for anyone who enjoys going straight into the crisis comms deep end, I’d say…

Events and conferences

Pocket Gamer Connects, London - 20th-21st January
Taipei Game Show, Taipei - 23rd-26th January
Yorkshire Games Fest, Bradford - 10th-25th February
DICE Summit, Las Vegas - 11th-13th February
devcomm leadership summit, Lisbon - 19th-21st February

Games of the year

Given that no-one is mad enough to release a game this early in the year, here are a few games that I’m looking forward to in 2025.

Slay the Spire 2 - Sequel to the deck building roguelike that swallowed up more than two weeks of my life arrives in Early Access this year.

Civilisation VII - Latest Sid Meier strategy game aims to streamline its dizzying, gorgeous complexity in time for its February 2025 release.

Avowed - Fantasy RPG from Fallout: New Vegas architects Obsidian seeks to plug the gap that Dragon Age: The Veilguard didn’t quite fill in my life (sorry Bioware…)

Before you go…

What’s a bad way to find out that your Christmas has been ruined?

How about opening up a box and discovering that the game card that you expect to be in there has been swapped for a googly eye?

IGN has the scoop on a story that can be described as almost literally eye-opening.

Discussion about this post

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